"Egypt Autos Report Q3 2013" now available at Fast Market Research

Car sales in Egypt rose 43%, to 17,463 units, in January, according to the latest data from the Automotive Marketing Information Council (AMIC). Sales of passenger car grew 39% to more than 12,000 vehicles during the month. However, the council said that many car producers and distributors are concerned over the coming period, as well as the whole year, as January sales were affected by the Egyptian currency devaluation. This came as the dollar increased by more than 10% since December, which resulted in around EGP5,000-60,000 (US$750-9,000) price rise for some luxury cars.

As the Egyptian pound reaches new lows, forcing up the price of imported vehicles, BMI believes this creates opportunities for small car and budget brands through demand from those consumers still keen to go ahead with purchases. As China's Geely Automobile just completed construction of its plant in late 2012, this could be one brand set to take advantage of the current conditions.

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Following a 30% decline in sales in 2011, largely owing to the political unrest in the country, the new vehicle market bounced back in 2012, with a 13% increase reported by AMIC. The report added that the market performed particularly well in H212. However, the depreciation of the Egyptian pound against the US dollar, which had reached EGP6.691/US$ on February 4, has made it difficult for imported brands to capitalise on the market's recovery. According to anecdotal evidence, the price of some models is rising weekly.

Industry surveys suggest that the majority of consumers are still keen go ahead with new car purchases, however, and the choice of model may change rather than the decision to buy. This is where we believe low-cost brands will have an edge and companies such as Geely, which has recently finished construction of a local plant, will have an even greater advantage as domestically produced products are more competitively priced.

In terms of the currency, BMI's Middle East and North Africa team believes there could still be a way to go for the pound and the central bank is likely to let the currency weaken to the psychologically important EGP7.0000/US$ level, before stepping up its defence of the unit once again. With this in mind, we believe lower cost brands, and particularly those assembling locally, will have an advantage in the short term.

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