New Report Available: Venezuela Business Forecast Report Q1 2014

We expect near-recessionary economic conditions to prevail over the coming quarters, characterised by a slowdown in private consumption and exports.

We believe recently elected President Nicolas Maduro will struggle to maintain his grip on power in a highly polarised political landscape, and do not rule out an early exit from office, either forcibly or through a referendum recall.

We expect Maduro to continue Chavez's policies of elevated social spending, which will result in sizeable fiscal deficits.

Inflation will remain elevated, at the highest level in Latin America, and the operating environment will remain very precarious for foreign multinationals in the country.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/713442_venezuela_business_forecast_report_q1_2014.aspx?afid=301

Major Forecast Changes

We have altered the timeline for the next devaluation of the bolivar. Previously we believed the government would hold off on further adjustments until 2015, but now believe that due to rising depreciatory pressures, this is more likely to occur in 2014.

We have made significant revisions to our forecasts for Venezuela's budget, based on the most recently available budget and inflation data, and incorporating our altered currency view. We now project the deficit to be 7.8% of GDP in 2013, and 10.2% in 2014, compared to our previous projections of 9.6% and 2.7% respectively

Key Risks To Outlook

Upside Risks: Higher-than-expected oil prices and more investorfriendly policies could see real GDP growth exceed our forecast. Downside Risks: The potential for elevated political tensions to materialise in a wider political crisis could see the economy enter a recession in the coming quarters.

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