Recently released market study: Pakistan Defence & Security Report Q2 2013

BMI's Pakistan Defence & Security Report for Q213 examines the country's strategic position in the Asian region and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.

The report also examines the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report's general conclusion is that Pakistan remains trapped in a cycle of political instability, economic malaise and Islamist militancy, with little hope of the situation improving in the short to medium term.

Domestically, the country has been rocked in early 2013 by severe sectarian violence in Balochistan, where hundreds of Hazara Shias have been killed in bomb attacks by Sunni militants. A public outcry has belatedly spurred the government to act, with Prime Minister Raja Parvez Ashraf pledging to eliminate the terrorist groups responsible. However, many doubt Islamabad's resolve to tackle Sunni militants. The intelligence services have also been heavily criticised either for their incompetence in failing to prevent the attacks or, even worse, for being complicit in the militants' operations. Even before the recent attacks, Balochistan had been restless, with local tribes resentful of what they regard as too much central control.

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Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/584547_pakistan_defence_security_report_q2_2013.aspx?afid=301
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Islamabad now faces a challenge to bring the province back under control.

However, there appeared to be an opportunity for peace with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, with leader Hakimullah Mehsud offering peace talks in February. This comes as Islamabad also makes a push to improve its relations with Afghanistan ahead of the US and NATO drawdown in 2013-14.

The direction of all these important matters will depend largely on the outcome of elections due by May 2013. It is not unlikely that there will be unrest as the campaigning and voting takes place, and the election is likely to be an attractive target for the country's militants.

Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* Events in Balochistan are discussed in detail. A bomb attack on a market in Quetta in mid- February, which killed 90 people, was only the latest incident in a cycle of worsening violence that has rapidly developed into Pakistan's most serious domestic security crisis in several years.
* Improvements in US-Pakistan relations are also discussed. Ties appear to be mending, with the US releasing U$688mn in funds to Pakistan in early 2013. As the US withdraws from Afghanistan, US-Pakistani relations my now be over their worst, although the two countries remain deeply wary of one another.

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