"Indonesia Oil & Gas Report Q3 2013" now available at Fast Market Research

Oil and gas exports form one of the key pillars of the Indonesian economy, although the outlook for the sector is becoming increasingly uncertain given dwindling oil reserves in the country's maturing fields. We forecast a long-term decline in total liquids production and a stagnation of gas production. This is mainly a result of the slow pace of exploration and development, which could be exacerbated by an increasingly uncertain regulatory environment as resource nationalism creeps into the government's policy towards the sector. Opportunities for exports will be further compromised by the domestic market's increasing energy demand. Hence, falling oil and gas exports is another key trend we identify for Indonesian oil and gas.

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The main trends and developments we highlight for Indonesia's oil and gas sector are:

* We forecast that oil and gas reserves will most likely be on a downward trend in the coming decade: oil reserves are expected to decrease from an estimate of 4.1bn barrels (bbl) of oil at the beginning of 2013 to 3.8bn bbl in 2017, falling further still to 3.6bn bbl by 2022. For gas, we expect reserves levels to be stagnant as additions from exploration successes in East Kalimantan cancel out natural depletion from existing fields. Reserves are forecast to stay flat at about 3.0-3.1trn cubic metres (tcm) through to 2017, following which it will decline slightly to 2.9tcm unless the pace of drilling activity picks up.
* Despite this outlook, we highlight that Indonesia is a country where much potential continues to exist. If the country relaxes its nationalist stance on resources, there is considerable upside potential for both oil and gas reserves - greater drilling of its unexplored deepwater areas and its unconventional resources - coal-bed methane and shale gas.
* We expect total liquids production to rise to 914,970b/d in 2014 and 921,690b/d in 2015, owing to major fields finally coming online or ramping up to their full production capacity. Thereafter, in the longer term we see oil output trending downwards to 870,540b/d in 2017 and hitting a low of 788,100b/d by 2022.
* Supported by strong economic growth and artificially propped by fuel subsidies in the short-term, demand is set to increase from an estimate of 1.41mn b/d in 2012 to 1.60mn b/d in 2017, rising further still to 1.81mn b/d by 2021. With demand outstripping supply, the country's import requirement will continue to rise, from 455,200b/din 2012 to 731,610b/d to 2017 and could further soar to 1.02mn b/d in 2021.

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