Recent Study: China Power Report Q3 2013

While coal-fired sources of electricity dominate, and will continue to dominate, the electricity mix in China over the course of our 10-year forecast period, other sources of power will play increasingly important roles. China's self-developed nuclear reactor, the CAP1400, will be ready for export before the end of 2013, illustrating the strength of the sector, and a government commitment to renewable sources of electricity, with the goal of sourcing 20% of electricity from renewable sources by 2015, will also drive investment in this sector. Hydroelectric sources of power are also forecast to expand in terms of electricity generation capacity. Challenges remain, particularly in terms of transmission and distribution infrastructure and the vast distances it has to transport electricity, from the resource-rich parts of the country to the heavily populated coastal areas. Access to finance is also an ongoing concern.

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The Chinese government has been actively pushing for renewable sources of energy to play a greater role in the electricity mix, and a series of regulatory developments indicate that the government is keen to keep the country's troubled solar energy equipment manufacturing sector afloat. That said, thermal sources of electricity - coal in particular - account for the majority of electricity generation; we calculate that total generation climbed by 3.35% in 2012 to stand at 4,626 terawatt hours (TWh), and thermal sources represented 79% of this. Over the course of our 10-year forecast period, we calculate that thermal sources of electricity will continue to dominate, representing 75% of the 8,339TWh electricity generation forecast for 2022. We forecast that electricity consumption will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% during this period, and that China will remain a net exporter of electricity during this 10-year period.

The most significant trends and developments in the market are:

* In April 2013, the Asian Development Bank announced that it would extend US$200mn in loans to Dynagreen Environmental Protection Group to develop waste-to-energy projects in small and medium-sized Chinese cities. The plants will have a total installed capacity of approximately 120 megawatts (MW) and will be fully operational by 2018.
* EDF and China Datang Corporation signed a cooperation agreement in April 2013. The two firms have agreed to collaborate on the development of thermal power projects in China and in other markets.
* The State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) announced that in April 2013 that work had begun on the third ultra high voltage power transmission line project in the country; this project had been delayed because of high costs. SGCC expects this transmission line will be completed by Q115.

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