Uganda Business Forecast Report Q3 2013 - New Market Research Report

We believe that, despite an expected sharp decline in donor aid, growth will accelerate in 2013 to 6.1%, compared to an estimated 4.8% in 2012, on the back of strong investment, and improved performance in services, construction and manufacturing.

Oil legislation continues to progress, paving the way for further development of the industry, although other proposed legislation has proved controversial, and potentially damaging to investor sentiment.

Major Forecast Changes

We have upgraded our fiscal deficit projections for FY2012/13 to 5.2% of GDP, compared to our earlier estimate of 5.5%, based on lower-than-expected expenditures.

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Due to a decline in the growth of imports, we have also upgraded our current account deficit projections to 9.8% of GDP, compared to our previous projection of 10.3%.

Key Risks To Outlook

Weather always poses risks to our outlook, as the Ugandan economy is heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture. Adverse weather conditions could seriously hamper economic output, while favourable weather could boost productivity.

If there are further delays to oil production, or if the industry moves more quickly than expected, we would adjust our forecasts accordingly.

Although Uganda remains largely peaceful, infighting within the NRM ruling party, as well as ongoing grievances from opposition groups and civil society, pose a threat to Uganda's long-standing stability if underlying concerns are not adequately addressed.

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