New Market Study Published: Ukraine Power Report Q3 2013

Ukraine's dependence on Russia for gas remains the most significant challenge for Ukraine's energy policy, exposing the country to ongoing price disputes and strengthening Russia's geopolitical leverage. Domestic sources cannot fuel all gas-fired generation, so Ukraine wishes to boost its nuclear and renewables capacity, while simultaneously attempting to divert its gas imports away from Russia. Investment is unlikely to reach the required level, due to low sales prices for power and the government's weak fiscal position, although the IMF is pushing for tariff increases.

Key trends and developments in the Ukrainian electricity market:

* Ukraine's power generation in 2013 is forecast by BMI to be 181.06 terawatt hours (TWh). During the period 2013-2022, Ukraine's overall power generation is expected to increase by a compound annual growth rate of 1.70%, reaching 214.34TWh. Driving this growth will be an annual average gain of 2.49% in gas-fired generation. Non-hydro renewables will also play a bigger role in the country's energy mix, growing by an annual average of 27.96% over the same period. Ukraine has a much more aggressive view of power consumption trends than BMI. An increase in electricity demand to 307TWh by 2020 and to 420TWh by 2030 is envisaged by the state, and government policy is to continue supplying half of this from nuclear power. This will require 29.5 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity in 2030, up from the current rate of 14.84GW. The scale of the increase is at odds with likely economic growth and population needs, and the cost of the capacity expansion programme is likely to be beyond Ukraine's capabilities.
* At the 16th EU-Ukraine Summit in Brussels it was agreed that the EU will supply 30bn cubic metres of gas through Poland and Slovakia. This amount is expected to cover Ukraine's annual domestic demand for gas, thus allowing the country to reduce its dependency from Russia. Furthermore, Ukraine's Energy Minister Eduard Stavytskyi and the European Commissioner for Energy Gunther Oettinger signed a protocol on the modernisation of the Ukrainian Gas Transporting System (GTS). The European Commissioner suggested considering the possibility of creating a trilateral consortium for managing the Ukrainian GTS.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/670687_ukraine_power_report_q3_2013.aspx?afid=301

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