Report Published: "Colombia Oil & Gas Report Q4 2013"

There is growing optimism with regard to the future of Colombia's energy sector; particularly as improving security dynamics and a more liberal business environment have led to increased investment in exploration and production (E&P). The ongoing licensing round and increased interest in the country's offshore potential will also bring increased foreign investment and exploration into the sector, leading to further growth in proven reserves and brightening an already robust long-term production picture.

The main trends and developments for Colombia's oil and gas sector are:

* An improving security situation and the country's attractive fiscal regime are likely to continue to attract significant levels of foreign investment into Colombia's oil sector. Production has grown by more than 70% since the mid-2000s and we expect that upward trend to continue. Preliminary January-April statistics from the Colombian Ministry of Mines and Energy show that production has slightly exceeded the 1mn barrels per day (b/d) threshold in 2013, and by 2017, we forecast production topping 1.32mn b/d, making it one of Latin America's top oil producers.
* Preliminary results indicate that the country's most recent licensing round was a success. Colombia's energy sector regulatory body, the ANH, reported that it received 106 offers for 50 blocks in its first and second rounds, out of a total of 115 on offer. Of these, 6 are located offshore, with the remainder onshore. However, only 5 of the 31 blocks with unconventional resource potential were awarded. We have slightly reviewed our reserves growth forecast downwards. We now forecast a 50% growth in the country's proven reserves between 2012 and 2017, reaching approximately 3.0bn barrels (bbl). Steady growth is forecasted through the end of our forecast period. While oil discoveries are made on a regular basis in Colombia, discoveries have tended to be of modest size. The country's crude reserves of 2.2bn bbl are about seven years' worth of current supply. With production growth increasing fast, Colombia has not yet managed to move beyond six to seven years of reserves. Nevertheless, we maintain an overall favourable outlook towards oil reserves growth in the country. With increasing foreign investments and if current exploration investments and activities bear fruit, proven oil reserves could be reviewed to the upside.
* Although most investment has been aimed at tapping Colombia's oil reserves, the effect of rising investment is also being felt in the gas sector. Gas production has nearly doubled in the last decade and we see scope for strong growth in the years ahead. Output is forecast to rise from 11.0bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to 13.5bcm in 2017.

Full Report Details at
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