Syria Defence & Security Report Q4 2013 - New Study Released

BMI's Syria Defence & Security report for Q413 examines: the country's civil war; the domestic, regional and international ramifications of the conflict; and Syria's place in the Middle East and the wider world. It also examines the country's armed forces and its military procurements. As this report went to press (in September 2013), the United States was preparing to carry out 'limited' airstrikes against Syria in response to the Assad regime's alleged use of chemical weapons on August 21, 2013 that killed hundreds of people. Our overall view is that while the civil war shows no immediate signs of ending, the regime had, prior to threats of US military action, appeared to be gradually gaining the upper hand against the rebels, and was slowly winning back territory which had fallen out of its control.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/684748_syria_defence_security_report_q4_2013.aspx?afid=301

The report argues that realistic development of the Syrian economy and its political structures is all but impossible while the country's civil war continues. Both outcomes of the conflict are fraught with risks. Should Assad remain in power, Syria will face isolation from the international community and be perceived as a pariah state. However, his ousting could usher in a renewed bout of violence as disparate factions united only in their opposition to his regime fight for political control. Furthermore, there is every chance that should Assad eventually be removed from power, an Islamist regime would take its place.

At the international level several countries, notably those in the West and the Gulf, have supported the arming of some of Syria's rebel groups, and flows of materiel to them are already occurring. Although there is widespread outrage at the Assad regime's apparent use of chemical weapons on civilians, public support in Western states for military intervention is weak. This mitigates against the US Obama administration and its NATO allies carrying out a massive multi-week or multi-month air campaign over Syria as it did in Libya in 2011 and in the former Yugoslavia in 1999.

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