Just Released: "Germany Power Report Q4 2013"

After contracting as all three operators reported net subscription losses in Q113, Egypt's mobile market returned to growth again in Q213. This was in line with BMI's overall view, as we forecast growth to continue until 2017. There is a transition under way though, with operators increasing their focus on postpaid migration and growth through wireless data services. Meanwhile, we expect an increase in competition from the entry of Telecom Egypt, likely as an MVNO, in Q413. In contrast, although TE's launch of multi-play services and its agreement to grant Etisalat access its fixed-line network are positive developments for the fixed-line sector, sharp losses in subscriptions due to non-payment of phone bills has accelerated the sector's decline.

Key Data

* Total mobile subscriptions increased by 2.777mn in Q213, a growth rate of 3% q-o-q. This offset most of the losses from the discounting of inactive SIMs in Q113.
* The fixed-line market declined to 6.98mn subscriptions at the end of June 2013, representing a y-o-y contraction of 19.3%.
* The number of mobile broadband subscribers grew rapidly, reaching a total of 13.55mn in June 2013. This is equivalent to y-o-y growth of 19.3%.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/694801_germany_power_report_q4_2013.aspx?afid=301

Risk/Reward Rating

Egypt remains in 11th position in our Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) table in Q4 2013. Although it did not change rank, Egypt received an improved industry rewards score due to strong uptake of broadband services, jumping 2.5 points to 42.5. However, it continues to be held back by its underperformance in the country rewards and country risks categories due to the impact of political and economic uncertainty on investor confidence and private consumption growth outlook.

Key Trends And Developments

Telecom Egypt (TE), Egypt's incumbent fixed-line and broadband provider, has announced plans to launch mobile services by the end of September 2013. TE is optimistic about its expansion into the mobile market, stating its expectation to attract 1.5mn subscribers by the end of the first stage of its expansion. Although TE has not yet confirmed that the regulator has given it a licence to launch mobile services, either as an MNO or an MVNO, in August it stated its acquisition of the licence was 'imminent'. In the announcement, TE also omitted whether it would operate as an independent operator or a virtual network operator, though BMI suspects it must be the latter, given the short timeframe in which it expects to launch services.

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