Market Report, "Lithuania Autos Report 2014", published

New passenger car sales in Lithuania declined 3.8% in 2012, to 11,829 units, according to figures released by the state registration agency Regitra. New commercial vehicle (CV) sales also contracted in 2012 by 4.0%, to 4,504 units, according to figures released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA).

This gave a total new vehicle sales figure of 16,333 units for 2012, a decrease of 3.8%, a sharp reversal to the 63.9% growth observed in 2011.

Passenger car sales remained dismal in 2013. Sales for the first 11 months of 2013 came in at 10,884 units, a decrease of 1.0% y-o-y. BMI forecasts 2013 passenger car sales to remain marginally unchanged from the previous year, at around 11,800 units.

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However, CV sales have performed well in 2013. According to the ACEA, Lithuanian CV sales rose 12.4% y-o-y for 10M13, to 4,252 units. We remain bullish on CV sales and forecast 9.1% growth in 2013, to 4,915 units. This would then bring our full-year sales growth forecast to 2.4%, to 16,732 units.

Beyond 2013, BMI is optimistic on the longer term outlook for the Lithuanian new vehicle sales market, forecasting expansion of 25.4% in total vehicle sales from 2014 to 2017, to reach 23,095 units, by 2017. BMI's Country Risk team has upgraded its GDP forecast for the Lithuanian economy for 2014 to 3.6%. While it anticipates a slight drop in household spending (which will continue to weigh on the passenger car segment), the general positive economic sentiment which has prevailed in 2013 is going to spill over into 2014. A more pronounced recovery in demand from developed markets and improved fiscal dynamics should pave the way for a stronger growth trajectory and, by extension, higher new auto sales, for the country.

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