"Poland Defence & Security Report Q2 2014" is now available at Fast Market Research

BMI expects Poland to spend US$10.9bn on defence in 2014, and this should increase to US$13.6bn by 2018. Despite the high levels which Poland has spent on defence during the 2010-2014 timeframe, and which it is expected to spend between 2014 and 2018, the country has still fallen just shy of the 2% of GDP non-binding guideline figure which NATO requests that its members spend annually on defence. BMI does not expect this percentage of GDP to increase before the end of the forecast period in 2018.

It was reported in early 2014 that the national defence budget for this year will be the highest in Poland's history. Poland aims, by 2022, to have a reserve fund worth US$28bn to cover major platform purchases. The intention is to ensure that procurements continue despite austerity measures that future Polish governments may introduce.

Poland is a significant manufacturer of materiel, and is arguably the most important producer of weapons among the ex-Warsaw Pact nations. What is more, the country's armaments industry has remained competitive and has emerged as a respected exporter of equipment. Nevertheless, despite the existence of a capable defence industry, Poland remains a net importer of equipment. The value of defence exports have been broadly growing and BMI expects Poland to export US$45.8mn worth of materiel in 2014, with the country expected to export up to US$51.5mn worth of defence-related exports by 2018.

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In mid-January 2014, the government said that it would radically reduce its deployment of troops to Afghanistan to around 500 personnel. This reduction of its presence in Afghanistan is in line with NATO's overall goals of vacating Afghanistan by 2015. Meanwhile, it was announced in January 2014 that Poland will purchase eight Alenia Aermacchi M-346 jet trainers worth EUR280mn to satisfy a requirement for a lead-in jet trainer to equip its air force.

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