New Market Report: South Africa Defence & Security Report Q2 2014

BMI expects South Africa to spend US$3.5bn on defence in 2014. Next year, in 2015, we expect the defence budget to increase to US$4.5bn. This trend will continue into 2016 with the defence budget increasing US$5.4bn. The final two years of the forecast period we see South Africa's defence budget increasing firstly to US$6.1bn and then to US$6.7bn at the end of the period under examination.

Parliamentary elections due to be held by May 2014 should be a gauge of the popularity of the government of President Jacob Zuma. Of particular threat to its popularity is the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA), which has selected a veteran campaigner against apartheid, Mamphela Ramphele, as its presidential candidate. The selection of Dr. Ramphele could split the black vote, which has been traditionally loyal to the ANC. While it is unlikely that the ANC will lose the elections, the DA could narrow the gap between itself and the incumbent party. The ANC has lost popularity after a number of recent corruption scandals. The ANC is also not helped by continuing high unemployment among the young and a sluggish economy.

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Denel reported in February 2014 that it had successfully completed the first round of flight tests of the company's Seeker 400 Unmanned Aerial Vehicle. The company has said that it expects production of this aircraft to commence for customers by the end of 2014, to be procured by the South African Defence Force among others.

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