Now Available: Poland Defence & Security Report Q4 2014

Since joining NATO, Poland's military rise has been slow, yet steady as the country seeks to achieve NATO interoperability capabilities. BMI thinks that Poland's current efforts to achieve technical modernisation are likely to depend on the success of economic growth in the wider economy. We expect that Poland's heightened sense of vulnerability to Russia in the wake of the Crimea annexation is likely to shape Poland's restructuring of the armed forces and defence industry for the foreseeable future.

BMI forecasts that Poland will spend a likely USD8.2bn on defence during 2015, which would represent a 7% year-on-year increase from 2014 when defence spending was reduced due to a slow-down in economic growth. We think European and international companies may potentially be able to benefit from the current growth in Poland's defence sector, which is a result of an expected investment of USD43bn by the government over the decade.

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We also expect Poland's defence plans and thinking in the future to be shaped by the perceived Russian threat. Consequently, Poland may not be as willing as previously to contribute significant numbers to multilateral initiatives, in the Middle East for example. We think Poland is likely to concentrate its efforts on the regional security environment, notably by developing relations with Kiev, the Baltic States and Sweden, by seeking to align with Germany within the European Union and by seeking a strong voice on Russian policy within NATO.

While we think that Poland does not face any immediate threat from Russia's actions in eastern Ukraine, we are wary of how events may turn out on the ground. For us, it seems unlikely that President Putin would want to engage in a military conflict with the entire NATO alliance. In the case that Poland was threatened, it may evoke Article V of the NATO treaty, which refers to collective self-defence. However, we note that Poland's call, backed by the Baltic States, for an extension of...

The Poland Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Poland Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Polish defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Polish defence and security market.

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