Argentina Agribusiness Report Q4 2015 - New Report Available

The Argentine grain sector will continue to play centre stage over the medium term amid a deteriorating economic environment . With foreign reserves under pressure, grain exports (particularly soybean) will remain vital, but there remains evidence of hoarding, which could lead to clashes with the government over policy . Nonetheless, s oybean will remain the pre-eminent crop in Argentina over the long term and we expect poultry production to show the most promise within the livestock complex. We see potential for a mild rebound in beef production, as sector fundamentals remain challenging despite a significant decrease in grain prices. The country's dairy sector shows relative promise, due to high local retail prices and investment into the sector.

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Key Forecasts

Corn production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 7.1 % to 2 6.8 mn tonnes. Production growth will remain good despite a wide switch to soybean, as exports will be attractive due to the large sell off in the peso.
Soybean production growth to 2018/19: 5.7% to 57. 1 mn tonnes. Growth will come from increasing export demand for soybeans along with more value-added products. Soybean crops are also generally less capital-intensive than corn crops due to lower input costs. However, lower prices over the next few years will reduce the area dedicated to soybean plantings. In terms of export markets, China will be a key destination of soybean exports as the country directs its focus towards the production of other major crops.
Poultry production growth to 2018/19: 19.3% to 2.4mn tonnes. Most production growth will come from improving trade demand, as we see comparatively subdued growth in the domestic market.
2015 real GDP growth: 0.1 % (down from 0.4% in 2014).
2015 consumer price inflation: 17 .0 % average (down from 24.7% in 2014).

The Argentina Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Argentina Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

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