Market Report, "Australia Defence & Security Report 2016", published

The Australian government plans large increases in defence spending over the next decade, in order to modernise the ADF - in particular the navy - amid rising threats linked to East and South China Seas territorial disputes, regional military build-ups, terrorism and cybercrime. Large-scale procurement programmes will be carried out over our forecast period to 2025 - most of which will be covered by foreign defence companies , due to Australia's still-limited military industrial base . That said, we see significant potential for expansion of the domestic defence sector in the longer term , as local companies - for which government support is strengthening - benefit from technology transfer agreements tied to military import contracts.

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Latest Updates:

The government has reiterated its commitment to raising defence spending to 2% of GDP, amid growing threats from terrorism, regional military build-ups, tensions surrounding the East and South China Seas territorial disputes and cybercrime. According to its current budget model and our GDP projections, this will occur by 2019. The government has decided to 'de-couple' its defence spending from GDP growth, which means that even if economic expansion slows, the military budget will still increase according to 2016 Defence White Paper plans.

The recently published Defence White Paper envisions major capability investments into six 'streams' in the next 10 years. These streams are: ISR, space, EW and cyber (to receive 9% of overall investment); maritime and anti-submarine warfare (25%); strike and combat air (17%); land combat and amphibious warfare (18%); key enablers (to support operation and sustainment of defence) (25%); and air and sea lift (6%).

According to the white paper, the size of the ADF will increase by around 2,500 to 62,400 staff over the next decade, in order to support new capabilities.

In April 2016, Australia selected France's DCNS as its preferred international partner for a USD39bn programme to replace the Collins-class submarines currently in service with the navy, in one of the largest-ever defence deals globally.

According to the defence department, Australian defence exports reached AUD1.8bn (USD1.3bn) in 2015 from AUD1.2bn in the previous year. This figure is likely to be slightly higher, as estimates are based on license approvals, and defence companies are not required to declare value of goods on applications.

Australian police has carried out a number of counterterrorism raids over the past few months. In November 2015, it revealed that 12 people assumed to be capable of carrying out terrorist attacks in Australia were being kept under close surveillance.

Defence Industry Risk/Reward Index :

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