Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report Q3 2016 - New Market Research Report

Progress on the formation of a unity government offers upside risk to oil production in South Sudan. However, we expect the pace of progress to remain slow, with no significant gains in output before 2017. The longer-term outlook for both Sudan and South Sudan is heavily bearish, due to a thin projects pipeline, lack of exploration and poor prospects for investment. The downstream sector is also weak, and we see limited room for growth given the high capital requirements, strained fiscal position of the respective governments and a lack of interest from foreign investors. Consumption growth is relatively strong, but from a low base. Growth prospects have also narrowed over recent quarters, due to subsidy reform in Sudan and a dollar shortage in South Sudan.Latest Updates And Key TrendsExploration in both Sudan and South Sudan will remain heavily constrained. An uncertain political and security environment, combined with major capex claw backs across the industry, will see limited investment in new exploration across our forecast period.Oil production in both countries is set for long-term decline. A range of factors are at play here, including the lack of major discoveries to be brought online, rapid depletion rates at producing fields, widespread damage to infrastructure, faltering investment and a lack of wider foreign participation.Refined fuels production will fail to keep pace with the strong rise in consumption, triggering a mounting dependency on refined fuels imports in South Sudan and falling exports from Sudan. Refineries in Sudan will struggle to maintain competitiveness against their global peers, due to falling domestic crude production, limited economies of scale and a lack of appetite in new downstream investments.Export revenues are at risk of sustained decline, both in line with falling domestic crude output and a sharp drop in global oil prices. Increased competition in Sudan and South Sudan's key Asian export markets also threatens further downward price pressures, over the longer term.

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The Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas industry.

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