Egypt Agribusiness Report Q3 2016 - New Market Research Report

Egypt will face growing production deficits in grains and meat as it focuses on export-oriented cash crops , while the dairy sector will benefit from sustained private investment. Out to 2020 , an expanding population and rising disposable incomes will support consumption growth in sugar and dairy products. Moreover, rice and beef consumption will benefit from the greater range of products available under the new food subsidy scheme. The real challenge that Egypt faces over the long run remains water shortages and a dire need to improve farming mechanisms to conserve water for sustained irrigation purposes.

Key Forecasts

Wheat production growth to 2020: 2.36% to 8.50mn tonnes. Wheat production will be constrained by a greater amount of arable land being devoted to export-oriented crops.

Rice consumption growth to 2020: 5.68% to 4.23mn tonnes. This will come from lower bread consumption induced by the new food subsidy scheme.

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Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 12.2% to 3.28mn tonnes. An expanding population and rising disposable incomes will stimulate demand for soft drinks and confectionary goods.

Poultry production growth to 2020: 3.0% to 968,000 tonnes. The recent avian flu outbreak will only cause temporary disruptions in the poultry sector as it is largely due to rural backyard poultry infections, leaving industrial production intact.

Real GDP growth: 2.6% in 2016 (no increase in rate from 2015).

Consumer price inflation: 12.3% average in 2016 (down from 10.4% y-o-y in 2015).

BMI universe agribusiness market value: 0.8% increase to USD26.97bn in 2015/16; forecast to increase on average around 2.4% annually between 2014/15 and 2019/20.

Industry Outlook

The Egyptian agricultural sector faces the threat of prolonged droughts and diminishing water supply for irrigation purposes, a challenge that looms large on the long-term horizon. The promotion of increased water efficiency is crucial to the survival of the Egyptian agricultural sector and new methods of using mechanised raised beds are proving vital. The raised bed farming technology appears promising as it can save up to 75% water compared to traditional irrigation techniques, along with the added benefit of reduced farming costs and higher yields.

Furthermore, the government is legalising the status of investors and farmers in the Sinai Peninsula to promote the agricultural sector in that region. Agricultural minister Essam Fayed on April 23 2016 pledged to swiftly undertake efforts to develop South Sinai's farming capabilities as the country grapples with an uncertain long-term agricultural future.

The Egypt Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

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