Report Published: "Spain Oil & Gas Report Q3 2016"


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[ClickPress, Fri Jul 15 2016] Though we witnessed an uptick in upstream investment into conventional resources within Spain over the past several years, we expect domestic production of oil and gas will remain negligible . W e expect imports will meet approximately 99% of demand for the foreseeable future . Moreover, w e believe prospects for onshore unconventionals will remain limited as significant technical, economic, environmental and political obstacles preclude us from including further upstream development of shale gas resources within our forecast period.

The main trends and developments we highlight in Spain's oil and gas sector are:

Prospects for conventional oil and gas discoveries remain poor, with insignificant existing volumes of oil reserves. Offshore opportunities took a hit in 2015 with withdrawals from Repsol and Cairn Energy. Above-ground regulatory and environmental hurdles along with local government opposition are the largest obstacles to upstream development. . Political, regulatory and economic obstacles will most likely prevent shale gas from factoring into reserves within the forecast period.

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With consumption forecast set to fall slightly or stagnate amid global overcapacity, the outlook for Spain's downstream appears bleak. There are no planned new refineries under way with a crude oil refining capacity forecast to remain at 1.49mn b/d across our forecast period. Risks to this outlook are to the downside, with ageing refineries unable to compete with the scale and efficiency of new generation capacity being built in the Middle East and Asia.

Iran announced in February 2016 plans to build a USD2bn oil refinery with a capacity of 120,000b/d. The National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) plans to cooperate with Spain's Magtel for the construction of the refinery in the Southern port city of Algeciras. At the moment, we do not include this within our forecast period given the lack of information regarding the project, the risks relating to the possibility of sanctions being put back into place should Iran breach the terms of the deal, the continued overcapacity issue in Western European refining market and Iran's limited financing availability. However, it is a risk we will follow closely.

After years of strong refined fuels consumption declines, we forecast consumption to largely stagnate over the rest of our forecast period thanks to continued efficiency drive in the transport sector and stagnant vehicle fleet.

Spain will remain a large net importer of crude oil over the next decade which will weigh on its overall trade balance. Spain will also rely on limited net imports of refined fuels over the forecast period, oscillating between 50,000b/d and 112,000b/d to 2025. This remains far below pre-2012 levels, largely thanks to the strong decline in domestic consumption.

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