Peru Agribusiness Report Q3 2016: New research report available at Fast Market Research

We continue to ma intain a generally positive outlook for th e Peruvian agricultural sector. We have modestly revised our forecasts for several segments of the Peruvian agricultura l sector in our Q2 2016 update though continue to maintain a positive outlook for the agricultural sector as a whole. Export crops such as coffee and cocoa are hampered by infrastructure constraints and a lack of investment ; however, as Peru develops and gains recognition for organic and speciality crops, both these sectors stand to benefit. Peru is also set to benefit from cheaper food imports owing to the lower price of grains and weakness in the Argentine peso, as Argentina is a major source of imported grains.

Key Forecasts

Poultry production to 201 9/2020: 1.4 mn tonnes. Ongoing investment and the availability of cheaper imported feed will support growth in the sector.

Sugar consumption to 20 20: 1. 4 mn tonnes. Low sugar prices and the rapid expansion of the local confectionery and soft drinks sector will see an expansion in demand for sugar in the coming years.

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Corn consumption to 2020: 4.6mn tonnes. Domestic consumption of corn is set to increase as Peru imports more corn from Andean neighbours at a cheap price.

Cocoa production to 2020: 98,000 tonnes. Cocoa production will increase as export demand remains stable and investment is made into Peruvian cocoa infrastructure.

Industry Developments

Depreciation of the Argentine peso over the coming years will benefit importers of Argentine agricultural products, particularly grain importers. Soybean hoarding by Argentine farmers will continue to increase, and we expect an increase in grains hoarding over the coming years. A depreciating peso will result in cheaper grain imports for key import markets such as China and Argentina's Latin American neighbours. Cheaper grains will also benefit the livestock industries in these countries, as cheaper feed costs could translate into higher profit margins and increased consumption.

We expect that the dairy production sector of Peru will be one of the strongest performers within the agricultural segment in the coming years. Having registered strong growth between 2007 and 2010, production declined considerably in 2012/13 as a result of record feed prices. Nevertheless, we believe that production began to grow a few years back, and it will continue to do so over the course of our forecast period.

The Peru Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

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