"China Power Report Q3 2016" now available at Fast Market Research

This quarter we have further revised our forecasts as China's power continue s to be affected negatively by t he ongoing economic slowdown in China and the government's continued efforts to tackle coal consumption. We believe coal-fired power generation will undergo a decline over 2016 and 2017, and then register only slight annual increases thereafter. The outlook for power consumption is similarly muted, with annual average growth rates of 3% between 2016 and 2025, as China's economy shifts away from power-intensive manufacturing.

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In terms of fuel mix, conventional thermal sources play a key role and are expected to continue to dominate electricity generation as many projects under construction or planned will use coal or gas, and as Chinese efforts in prospecting and exploiting conventional oil and gas resources are set to increase. While other sources of power will play increasingly important roles, China will remain reliant on coal for its power generation over the next decade. China's power mix continues to evolve, in line with the slowdown in China's economy - which is curbing power consumption - and the ongoing efforts by the Chinese government to tackle pollution, which is resulting in reduced coal consumption. This, coupled with the gain in prominence of cleaner fuels, such as gas, nuclear power and renewable energy, is having a significant impact on China's power sector. Over our forecast period, we expect coal-fired power generation to register just a 2% increase from 2015 to 2025, while other fuels will post much higher growth levels - albeit from a lower base. Natural gas and nuclear power will both increase by over 300% and non-hydro renewables will more than double. Oil power will decline as it is gradually phased out of the power mix over the next decade.

China's role in regional power markets across the world will continue to expand over 2016, with both developed and developing markets targeted for investment. Chinese companies will be most active in the coal, hydropower, nuclear and renewables equipment industries, gaining market share in these sectors.

By the end of our forecast period in 2025, we expect nuclear capacity in China to surge from an estimated 26.7 gigawatts (GW) in 2015 to over, as the mammoth pipeline of reactors that are planned, proposed or under construction gradually comes online ( see 'Nuclear Technology Footprint To Expand', April 15). This will make China one of the largest nuclear markets globally in terms of total installed capacity.

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