New Report Available: India Oil & Gas Report Q3 2016

India's oil and gas production outlook is heavily bearish, with rapid decline rates and a narrow project pipeline weighing down growth. Incremental reform of the country's fiscal and regulatory regime, alongside progressive price liberalisation, offers risks to the upside. However, further reform will be needed to unlock exploration and development in the most prospective but hard-to-access areas. The outlook on the refining sector remains broadly bullish, supported by strong forecast consumption growth, supportive government policies and continued market deregulation.

Key trends and latest updates for the Indian oil & gas sector are:

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government is enacting incremental reform to improve the country's wider business environment. Key reforms include a streamlining of bureaucratic procedure and an increase in companies' operational flexibilities.

The government has also enacted various domestic pricing reforms, including an increase in the domestic gas price cap and the liberalisation of diesel prices.

Unconventional and deepwater resources, which account for the bulk of the prospective resource base, are subject to a separate pricing formula, which has yet to be determined. Interest in the NELP-X licensing round rests heavily on how this formula is calculated.

While fiscal and regulatory reforms offer upside risk to exploration and production, major downside risks remain. India has a relatively strong record in terms of policy formation, but often struggles in the implementation.

Changes in the licensing terms from a profit sharing to a revenue sharing structure could dissuade some international oil companies from investing. A revenue sharing contract poses higher risk and entails a significantly longer period of cost recovery.

A sharp drop in the price of crude may also dampen interest in the round, straining the economic viability of the more expensive unconventional and deepwater developments.

The downstream sector is set for strong growth, supported by falling subsidisation, domestic price liberalisation, rapidly rising domestic demand and lower crude feedstock costs.

The India Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for India including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's India Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indian oil and gas industry.

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